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U.S. cables: Mubarak still a vital ally

U.S. relations with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is full of contradictions and tensions, including the recently published American diplomatic cables, but also supports the similar interests of a part of the rough and unpredictable world.

CNN analysis of secret and confidential cables published by Wikileaks and its media partners to disclose the frustration of U.S. concerns with the lack of succession planning on Mubarak's stuttering economic reform and private criticism of the Mubarak government's hard line toward domestic opponents.

But the cable also show that Washington sees Egypt, an important and - so far - a solid ally of issues, including Iran's nuclear program, which promotes the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and makes life difficult for Hamas in Gaza .

And above all, Egypt is considered a bulwark against Islamic fundamentalism sponsored by the moderate Iran.

Cords show that Mubarak has been consistently tough line toward Iran, said U.S. diplomats in 2008, which warned Tehran not to provoke the Americans "is a weapon and demanded by Egypt would never accept nuclear-armed Iran .

Mubarak also warned against Iran's influence with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a cable from February last year, was quoted as describing "the hand of Tehran moves with ease across the Gulf region in Morocco. "

2009 cable noted that "the discovery of the cell of Hezbollah in Egypt, the Egyptians seem more willing to deal with the Iranian surrogates, and to work closely with Israel." To this end, the cables described Mubarak's government of a useful partner to stop smuggling into Gaza from Egypt. Cable 2008 borrowed from the old Egyptian military figure as saying that Egypt had spent about $ 40 million euro to buy an underground steel wall on the border with Gaza, and Egypt have had to pay the cost of this wall of public opinion in Egypt and the region. "

There is no guarantee that "successor" to the Mubarak government would take such a hard line with Hamas.

For the U.S. alliance between Egypt and Saudi Arabia has also been an important counterweight to the growth of Iranian influence on the "Arab street" and among states such as Syria and Qatar.

Egyptian officials were at the bottom of Mubarak, also repeatedly told the visiting Americans - military, diplomatic and Congress - that he alone among the Arab states can play a mediating role between Israel and the Palestinians. [Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, Mubarak has resisted the popular resistance against it.]

Before the visit by Mubarak to Washington in May 2009, Ambassador Margaret Scobey wrote in Cairo that "the Egyptians want to visit shows that Egypt is America's indispensable" ally of the Arabs. "

Scobey after Mubarak was "realistic time some tried and true, naturally cautious and conservative, and is idealistic goals."

He saw himself as "someone who is tough but fair, which ensures the basic needs of its people."

Meanwhile, the Mubarak government is sensitive to some concern in Washington. It has launched an appeal against the cuts in U.S. economic aid and stop military aid to the level "because it shows that we have fallen in value of our relationship," according to a single cable.

There is pressure to improve human rights, according to a cable Scobey in 2009, Mubarak has this problem personally, and it does boil when I rise, especially in public. "

In a cable later, Mubarak said "leads us to the Shah of Iran. He urged the U.S. to accept the reforms, to see the country fall into the hands of extremist religious revolutionaries"

The Egyptian president called his interior minister and intelligence services to "keep pets at bay, and Mubarak is not one to lose sleep over their tactics."

The frustration of U.S. cable display Mubarak reluctantly to face the issues of human rights, with one in 2008, said. "Although Egypt has made limited gains over the In recent years, such as press freedom, progress has generally been slow "

In a subsequent telegram suggested Scobey, the new Secretary of State Hillary Clinton "may want to set a marker for a future discussion on issues of democratization and human rights." But given the sensitivities Mubarak, the United States came close to pushing the Egyptian government on issues of human rights. A cable from 2009 said the U.S. has avoided "the public confrontation that had become routine in recent years" on human rights.

In the past five years, the cables show a growing unease about the lack of a succession plan, and apprehension at the thought of Mubarak's younger son, Gamal, taking over from his father. In April 2006, found that cable's wife Suzanne Mubarak, President, his son was "the most ardent booster," but added:. "The possibility that Gamal to succeed his father remains very unpopular in the street"

He added that "unlike his father, may (Gamal) did not support the military for granted, never served as an officer. But the same cable regrets the lack of obvious candidates to succeed the aging Mubarak - a situation that seems to hold today.

Scobey wrote in apparent frustration two years ago Mubarak seems to have confidence in God and the security services throughout the military and civilians to ensure an orderly transition. "

Recent events may have eroded confidence, but a cable in 2007 emphasized that the unit of Egypt's internal security ", estimated at 1.4 million inhabitants, is at least twice its size was under Sadat. .. and make any forcible change of the unlikely leader. "

This view has been challenged - and the army's role can be critical in deciding the outcome. 2008 cable quotes the Egyptian experts describe as a "disgruntled mid-level officer corps" of military salaries are far from superior officers and civilians on the filthy Gamal succeeds his father.
Egyptian commentators also noted that many officers were frustrated that loyalty to the regime of false authority, and that the best military talent was discarded if it should be a threat to the government. However, a cable concluded: "The army remains a political and economic force."

After debating whether military action to prevent Mubarak to pass the baton to his son, finds cable: "In an inheritance scenario Messier, but it becomes more difficult to predict military action."