Almost 30 years, one man has dominated Egypt.
Hosni Mubarak has survived a suspected murderers and ill health, he crushed an uprising and the radical Islamist movement kept the peace with Israel's neighbors that got his predecessor assassinated. continued compliance with the Government of the Camp David accords with Israel is the cornerstone of what was achieved peace in the decades-old conflict between Israelis and Arabs.
After the uprising that toppled the strongman's longtime Tunisia, protesters in the streets of Cairo lies at the riot police and chanted "Mubarak, Saudi Arabia waiting for you." Knowledgeable observers say it is the biggest challenge of his regime at the moment.
It is far from clear that the protesters have the support or coordination to bring down the man drew criticism last pharaoh of Egypt.
"He has been in power too long, and it is very difficult," said Juan Cole, a Middle East historian at the University of Michigan. "We have developed all sorts of techniques to deal with opponents who proved a success."
But the long-term observers in the region, the stability of Mubarak has purchased the price is rooted in poverty and oppression in the Arab world's most populous country.
"Egypt is a broken nation," Fawaz Gergen, professor of Middle East relations at the London School of Economics, told CNN. "It used to be the jewel of the Middle East. It is the production of cultural capital. " But now, Gergen said, "Egyptians have nothing to do. They do not feel they have a sense of hope for the future."
Mubarak was a Soviet-trained pilot, who was chief of staff of the Egyptian Air Force during the 1973 war in the Middle East. The early success of the Egyptian pilots against Israel made him a national hero, and then president Anwar Sadat, made him the vice-president in 1975.
Six years later, Sadat was killed in a hail of gunfire during a military parade, was killed by Islamic militants from within own ranks of the army after taking the dramatic step of making peace with Israel. On assuming office, was one of the first acts of President Mubarak to declare a state of emergency that has blocked unauthorized assembly, restricted freedom of expression and the police allowed people in prison indefinitely .
He has made extensive use of these powers in the decades that followed. The Egyptian army put down riots by disgruntled officers in 1986, and he threw about 30,000 people in prison when jihadists made a series of attacks against tourists.
"It almost killed them," said Cole. "It is no coincidence that they were in Afghanistan, instead of Egypt." And the government has also penetrated into the movements of opposition if even "if five people are sitting in a conspiracy, the fifth person to write a report about Hosni Mubarak," he said.
The result is "a regime that has very little legitimacy, but it seems that something is useless to try to change," said Nathan Brown, professor of political science at the Middle East at George Washington Washington. However, Brown said the Jan. 14 ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who fled to Saudi Arabia after 23 years in power, has changed the thinking of many in the region.
"I think the events in Tunisia should have the feeling that nothing could change and lead some people to question," he said.
Mubarak has led to a similar move earlier, in 2005, when the Egyptians mounted mass demonstrations calling for a deep and widespread reform. It intimidated the leaders of the officially banned but tolerated Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators harassed middle-class and managed to remove the leadership of these events, "said Brown.
But the current movement "has no real meaning, so it can not be decapitated in the same way," he said. "If Mubarak decided tomorrow," I'll sit down and go with you "it is not clear who" you "are."
Mubarak has won four terms as president in elections that were considered formalities. Its fifth session in 2005, Egypt was the first multiparty presidential poll, but was widely criticized as a "farce," said Cole.
Meanwhile, the country's economy stagnated during the first 20 years of his government. Development has accelerated over the past decade, fueled by the move away from state control and the billions of tourist dollars, but its profits were "highly irregular." About 40 percent of Egypt is currently living in poverty, "said Gerges.
The aging autocrat has escaped at least two assassination attempts, including a close call in 1995 when Islamic militants opened fire on his convoy in a pan-African conference in Ethiopia. And in recent years, had several episodes of the disease, but has never elected a vice-president. It is generally believed to have anointed his son Gamal, as his successor, but no official announcement has been made.
In 2003 he collapsed during a televised speech before the Egyptian parliament - later to blame for his illness from influenza. He had back surgery in Germany in 2004, returning in 2010 to have his gall bladder. He largely withdrew from public view in recent years and has not responded to his country during the current crisis, "said Brown.
Their situation is being closely watched abroad, including the United States. In the past ten years, Egypt has been a major player in the peace talks between Israel and Palestine, and has contributed troops to the US-led coalition that pushed Iraq from Kuwait in 1991. It receives about $ 1.3 billion in military aid from Washington every year, second only to Israel, and has received nearly $ 30 billion in economic aid since 1975, according to State Department figures.
But it was against the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 - and while sticking with the Camp David, Egypt's ties with Israel is a "cold peace," said Cole.
Barack Obama noted Thursday that Mubarak was "very helpful on a number of difficult issues, but he said he pushed the Egyptian leader to take reform measures.
"You can see these frustrations pent displayed in the streets," said Obama urged the Egyptian government to avoid recourse to violence to suppress the protests, adding:. "I think it's very important that people have for expressing legitimate grievances."
Brown said that Mubarak is likely to endorse a political way to survive. But it will "carefully, so it is not considered a desperate measure of last resort."
Cole said that Mubarak will meet any demands of the protesters and lift the state of emergency.
"Egypt has a very liberal constitution, and included a lot of rights," he said. "But it's just a piece of paper. Runs the emergency." If removed, "the judges and courts in Egypt are very energetic, and taking into account the state."
It could also hold a free and fair presidential election this year, "but is asking a lot," said Cole.
But Gerges said the Middle East has seen "a barrier of fear" out, because the events in Tunisia.
"The Arabs do not feel really terrified by the security apparatus, whether Mubarak stays or goes, he says." We will have a new era of politics. "
Hosni Mubarak has survived a suspected murderers and ill health, he crushed an uprising and the radical Islamist movement kept the peace with Israel's neighbors that got his predecessor assassinated. continued compliance with the Government of the Camp David accords with Israel is the cornerstone of what was achieved peace in the decades-old conflict between Israelis and Arabs.
After the uprising that toppled the strongman's longtime Tunisia, protesters in the streets of Cairo lies at the riot police and chanted "Mubarak, Saudi Arabia waiting for you." Knowledgeable observers say it is the biggest challenge of his regime at the moment.
It is far from clear that the protesters have the support or coordination to bring down the man drew criticism last pharaoh of Egypt.
"He has been in power too long, and it is very difficult," said Juan Cole, a Middle East historian at the University of Michigan. "We have developed all sorts of techniques to deal with opponents who proved a success."
But the long-term observers in the region, the stability of Mubarak has purchased the price is rooted in poverty and oppression in the Arab world's most populous country.
"Egypt is a broken nation," Fawaz Gergen, professor of Middle East relations at the London School of Economics, told CNN. "It used to be the jewel of the Middle East. It is the production of cultural capital. " But now, Gergen said, "Egyptians have nothing to do. They do not feel they have a sense of hope for the future."
Mubarak was a Soviet-trained pilot, who was chief of staff of the Egyptian Air Force during the 1973 war in the Middle East. The early success of the Egyptian pilots against Israel made him a national hero, and then president Anwar Sadat, made him the vice-president in 1975.
Six years later, Sadat was killed in a hail of gunfire during a military parade, was killed by Islamic militants from within own ranks of the army after taking the dramatic step of making peace with Israel. On assuming office, was one of the first acts of President Mubarak to declare a state of emergency that has blocked unauthorized assembly, restricted freedom of expression and the police allowed people in prison indefinitely .
He has made extensive use of these powers in the decades that followed. The Egyptian army put down riots by disgruntled officers in 1986, and he threw about 30,000 people in prison when jihadists made a series of attacks against tourists.
"It almost killed them," said Cole. "It is no coincidence that they were in Afghanistan, instead of Egypt." And the government has also penetrated into the movements of opposition if even "if five people are sitting in a conspiracy, the fifth person to write a report about Hosni Mubarak," he said.
The result is "a regime that has very little legitimacy, but it seems that something is useless to try to change," said Nathan Brown, professor of political science at the Middle East at George Washington Washington. However, Brown said the Jan. 14 ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who fled to Saudi Arabia after 23 years in power, has changed the thinking of many in the region.
"I think the events in Tunisia should have the feeling that nothing could change and lead some people to question," he said.
Mubarak has led to a similar move earlier, in 2005, when the Egyptians mounted mass demonstrations calling for a deep and widespread reform. It intimidated the leaders of the officially banned but tolerated Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators harassed middle-class and managed to remove the leadership of these events, "said Brown.
But the current movement "has no real meaning, so it can not be decapitated in the same way," he said. "If Mubarak decided tomorrow," I'll sit down and go with you "it is not clear who" you "are."
Mubarak has won four terms as president in elections that were considered formalities. Its fifth session in 2005, Egypt was the first multiparty presidential poll, but was widely criticized as a "farce," said Cole.
Meanwhile, the country's economy stagnated during the first 20 years of his government. Development has accelerated over the past decade, fueled by the move away from state control and the billions of tourist dollars, but its profits were "highly irregular." About 40 percent of Egypt is currently living in poverty, "said Gerges.
The aging autocrat has escaped at least two assassination attempts, including a close call in 1995 when Islamic militants opened fire on his convoy in a pan-African conference in Ethiopia. And in recent years, had several episodes of the disease, but has never elected a vice-president. It is generally believed to have anointed his son Gamal, as his successor, but no official announcement has been made.
In 2003 he collapsed during a televised speech before the Egyptian parliament - later to blame for his illness from influenza. He had back surgery in Germany in 2004, returning in 2010 to have his gall bladder. He largely withdrew from public view in recent years and has not responded to his country during the current crisis, "said Brown.
Their situation is being closely watched abroad, including the United States. In the past ten years, Egypt has been a major player in the peace talks between Israel and Palestine, and has contributed troops to the US-led coalition that pushed Iraq from Kuwait in 1991. It receives about $ 1.3 billion in military aid from Washington every year, second only to Israel, and has received nearly $ 30 billion in economic aid since 1975, according to State Department figures.
But it was against the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 - and while sticking with the Camp David, Egypt's ties with Israel is a "cold peace," said Cole.
Barack Obama noted Thursday that Mubarak was "very helpful on a number of difficult issues, but he said he pushed the Egyptian leader to take reform measures.
"You can see these frustrations pent displayed in the streets," said Obama urged the Egyptian government to avoid recourse to violence to suppress the protests, adding:. "I think it's very important that people have for expressing legitimate grievances."
Brown said that Mubarak is likely to endorse a political way to survive. But it will "carefully, so it is not considered a desperate measure of last resort."
Cole said that Mubarak will meet any demands of the protesters and lift the state of emergency.
"Egypt has a very liberal constitution, and included a lot of rights," he said. "But it's just a piece of paper. Runs the emergency." If removed, "the judges and courts in Egypt are very energetic, and taking into account the state."
It could also hold a free and fair presidential election this year, "but is asking a lot," said Cole.
But Gerges said the Middle East has seen "a barrier of fear" out, because the events in Tunisia.
"The Arabs do not feel really terrified by the security apparatus, whether Mubarak stays or goes, he says." We will have a new era of politics. "